The 2011 Solar Stock Forecast

Posted by Ian Cooper - Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

From Energy and Capital's Jeff Siegel:

If there's one thing you can always count on during an election year, it's an avalanche of lies and misinformation.

Here are some of my favorites from this year:

We've excluded lobbyists from policymaking jobs. — President Barack Obama. (The truth can be found here.)

The president of the United States will be taking a trip over to India that is expected to cost the taxpayers $200 million a day. — Congresswoman Michele Bachman. ( The truth can be found here.)

Louisiana gets “not one single penny” from Gulf Coast offshore oil revenues. — Louisiana Senator, Mary Landrieu. (The truth can be found here.)

This next one's actually from 2009, but it's so outrageously ridiculous (and sadly, believed by so many), that it deserves an honorable mention in this list:

Seniors and the disabled “will have to stand in front of Obama's 'death panel' so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their 'level of productive in society,' whether they are worthy of health care. — Former Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin. (The truth can be found here.)

Of course, this kind of divisiveness and blatant lying is nothing new. It's been going on for years. And it's done on both sides of the aisle, equally.

But I do believe that over the past few years, it's really gotten out of hand. We're at a point now where these folks can just make things up and there's no accountability.

And rest assured; this trend is not going to let up anytime soon. There's no doubt that 2011 will bring us even more lies and deception... more smokescreens and misinformation... more partisan bickering and more excuses for complacency...

And nothing significant will change because the bastards know they can get away with it.

The fanny pack-wearing lawn chair revolutionaries will curse the “liberal media” as they get suckered into falling for Glenn Beck's next gold scam.

The entitlement class of welfare facilitators and unemployed philosophers will demand more government assistance to wipe their asses.

And the majority of the rational, middle-of-the-road folks who are fed up with the whole damn thing are simply too busy busting their humps at work to fight the message board bullies or the machine that controls them like marionettes.

It's difficult to rally against the devils when you're working 60+ hours a week just to put food on the table...

And as you know, things aren't looking particularly bright going into 2011. We basically have a bunch of incompetent bureaucrats trying to unravel a bird's nest of bad ideas, backroom deals, and decades' worth of deceit — all intertwined with special interest lucre.

The only bright spot is that while they're pretending to look busy, a crisis of necessity will continue to help us secure our wealth and fuel our portfolio.

Profits over pessimism

Despite my palpable disgust for the Washington machine and all those who fund it — and despite my rather pessimistic social, political, and economic outlook for 2011 — I still believe there a few opportunities that will pay off quite well for us as we head into the next year.

These include, but are not limited to:

  • Gold - I'm particularly interested to see what happens after the Hong Kong bullion exchange launches the first international gold contract denominated in renminbi next year.

  • Rare Earths – From steel production to car manufacturing, rare earth supply crunches are no illusion.

  • Oil – Although I'm not particularly fond of the black stuff (nor the thieves and liars who keep us addicted to it), you're kidding yourself if you don't think $100 oil is right around the corner.

  • Real Estate - I'm on the fence with real estate, but my colleague Chris DeHaemer makes a very compelling case for a 60% annual return here.

  • Chinese solar and wind – While the domestic solar and wind industries got a one-year lease on life for a few bread crumbs' worth of subsidies (compared to what coal and oil will continue to get), China has basically bankrolled its solar and wind industries. As a result, China solar and wind manufacturers now dominate the global market. We sold our souls (and an opportunity for massive domestic job growth) for cheap labor. And although solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly in the U.S., the big money for investors will be found primarily in China. Because guess what? A massive chunk of our solar growth will be facilitated by cheap, made-in China solar panels.

Of course, I could be wrong...

Maybe the economy will prosper in 2011 with all those new “fiscally responsible” politicians living up to their campaign promises...

Maybe China will happily share its bounty of rare earths, and maybe new massive fields of cheap, easily accessible oil will magically appear under the sands of the Arizona desert...

Maybe housing prices will soar and millions of Americans will move into new homes at a record pace...

And maybe conservatives and liberals will come together and rally behind the rational, domestic development of new solar and wind manufacturing, thereby providing jobs, revenue, clean power generation and made-in-America pride.

But I wouldn't count on it.

At least not while special interests continue to act as media gatekeepers and dictators of policy. And definitely not while our lawmakers keep cranking out those lies instead of focusing on the policies that can get us back on track.

So make your money, my friends. Make it where you can, and protect it all.

To a new way of life, and a new generation of wealth...

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Jeff
Editor, Energy and Capital

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