I'm Finished Arguing with Housing Bulls

Posted by Ian Cooper - Friday, January 7th, 2011

Housing is not recovering.  It won't recovery for quite some time. 

Don't listen to the housing bulls... they're lost.

From The Financial Times:

"From S&P’s latest shadow inventory report, released earlier this week:

Because of the volume of distressed homes either on the market or waiting to be remarketed for sale, our estimate for how long it will take to clear the backlog continues to grow. At the end of the third quarter, we estimate that the principal balance of these distressed homes amounted to more than $450 billion, representing about one-third of the nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market currently outstanding.

We continue to monitor the impact that the large volume of residential defaults is having on the housing market. When borrowers default on their mortgage obligations, the properties are liquidated and re-sold. Given the pace of residential defaults during the housing downturn, the market’s inability to quickly absorb the excess volume has created a large “shadow inventory” of distressed properties—which we define as outstanding properties whose borrowers are (or recently were) 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgage payments, properties currently or recently in foreclosure, or properties that are real estate owned (REO)."

Read more here.



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