China: Number One Economy by 2030?

The World Bank and Beijing are looking forward to the release of the “China 2030 Report,” a recommendation for the future of China’s economic growth.

According to the report, China is on track to become the largest economy in the world by the year 2030. But it offers recommendations for the nation to continue that growth. This year could mark the slowest year of economic growth in China in over a decade. Its economy is focused on industry, but moving toward the free market will keep the growth up.

At the launch of the report, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said:

“As China’s leaders know, the country’s current growth model is unsustainable…This is not the time just for muddling through.  It’s time to get ahead of events and to adapt to major changes in the world and national economies.”

The report urges the nation to focus less on industry and more on market moving. It also recommends green energy, a focus on innovation, social security, and good and productive relations with other nations.

The goal is to focus the Chinese economy more on domestic consumerism and less on exports to other nations.  Though the nation’s strategy has worked until now, the slowed growth marks a time for change...

In the fall, decade-long leaders of the country will step down. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will make room for new leaders and offer China the opportunity for a whole new look. But there’s no guarantee the recommended reforms will go through. Dong Tao believes the nation just isn’t ready for this kind of change:

“As an economist, I’m a big fan of market-based economies. But Beijing needs to balance what is economically good with what is politically and socially practical.”

The International Monetary Fund offered Beijing similar recommendations in the fall of 2011 and faced objections.

But Zoellick thinks the report’s suggestions aren’t so forceful and demanding that opposition will be fierce. It could offer the suggestions China needs to quickly become the world’s leading economy.

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